{ "generated_at": "2026-06-15T17:39:46+08:00", "sources": { "latest_data_date": "2026-06-15", "rotation_chart": "", "market_universe": "AI infrastructure, AI applications, Physical AI, power and energy chains" }, "signal": { "title": "硬件链继续占优", "title_en": "Hardware chain remains ahead", "body": "硬件 20 日相对软件 +10.5%；1 日相对差 +2.2%。", "body_en": "Hardware 20-day return versus software: +10.5%; 1-day spread: +2.2%.", "spread_20": 0.1052040597769834, "spread_1": 0.0215025761660144 }, "basket": [ { "basket": "hardware_infra", "name_count": 38, "today_quote_ratio": 1.0, "mean_return_1d": 0.0352754846, "advancing_ratio_1d": 0.8684210526, "mean_return_20d": -0.0097654895, "mean_return_60d": 0.4424614992, "median_volume_ratio_20d_vs_prev60d": 1.0540097518 }, { "basket": "software_model_app", "name_count": 14, "today_quote_ratio": 1.0, "mean_return_1d": 0.0137729085, "advancing_ratio_1d": 0.7142857143, "mean_return_20d": -0.1149695492, "mean_return_60d": -0.0992589232, 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"return_20d": -0.0307617188, "volume_shock_vs_20d": 1.6008940177, "last_bar_date": "2026-06-15", "quote_quality_status": "ok", "quote_quality_reason": "passed quote quality checks" }, { "ticker": "010120.KS", "name": "LS Electric", "basket": "hardware_infra", "segment": "Power/cooling / Switchgear/automation", "return_1d": 0.1573033708, "return_20d": -0.0803571429, "volume_shock_vs_20d": 1.5072435915, "last_bar_date": "2026-06-15", "quote_quality_status": "ok", "quote_quality_reason": "passed quote quality checks" } ], "freshness_alerts": [ { "source_type": "market_quote_quality", "source": "300570.SZ", "status": "warning", "severity": "warning", "reason": "large 1D move 20.0%; check split/adjustment and intraday timing", "observed_value": "300570.SZ" }, { "source_type": "market_quote_quality", "source": "380540.KQ", "status": "warning", "severity": "warning", "reason": "large 1D move -50.0%; check split/adjustment and intraday timing", "observed_value": "380540.KQ" }, { "source_type": "market_quote_quality", "source": "02513.HK", "status": "warning", "severity": "warning", "reason": "large 1D move 32.8%; check split/adjustment and intraday timing", "observed_value": "2513.HK" }, { "source_type": "market_quote_quality", "source": "02706.HK", "status": "warning", "severity": "warning", "reason": "large 1D move 19.6%; check split/adjustment and intraday timing", "observed_value": "2706.HK" } ], "chains": [ { "title": "HBM / Storage", "note": "HBM、server DRAM、eSSD、QLC、nearline HDD", "note_en": "HBM, server DRAM, eSSD, QLC and nearline HDD", "count": 11, "score": 9.4 }, { "title": "PCB / Packaging", "note": "AI PCB、ABF、TCB、probe/test", "note_en": "AI PCB, ABF substrates, TCB, probe and test", "count": 13, "score": 17.6 }, { "title": "Optical / Interconnect", "note": "光模块、DSP、InP、CPO、连接器、铜缆", "note_en": "Optical modules, DSP, InP, CPO, connectors and copper links", "count": 8, "score": 16.2 }, { "title": "Power / Cooling", "note": "变压器、配电、UPS、液冷、工程能力", "note_en": "Transformers, power distribution, UPS, liquid cooling and data-center engineering", "count": 13, "score": 17.7 }, { "title": "Physical AI", "note": "机器人、执行器、电机、减速器、传感器、边缘算力", "note_en": "Robotics, actuators, motors, reducers, sensors and edge compute", "count": 0, "score": null }, { "title": "AI Space Infrastructure", "note": "卫星、发射、轨道算力、地面站、直连通信", "note_en": "Launch, satellites, orbital compute, ground stations and direct-to-device links", "count": 9, "score": 5.7 }, { "title": "AI Apps / Models", "note": "AI 应用、模型、平台、云收入", "note_en": "AI applications, models, platforms and cloud revenue", "count": 14, "score": -0.11496954924789414 } ], "market_regime": { "generated_at": "2026-06-15T17:39:45+08:00", "panic_score": 35.0, "regime_state": "normal", "vix_level": 27.27, "semi_drawdown_60d": -0.0281, "hardware_software_spread_20d": 0.1052 }, "sector_flow": [ { "segment": "volatility", "proxy_ticker": "^VXN", "proxy_name": "Nasdaq volatility", "timestamp": "2026-06-12T21:30:00+08:00", "return_1d": -0.1041392911, "return_20d": 0.1324751057, "return_60d": -0.0162337254, "drawdown_60d": -0.1869409746, "volume_ratio": 0.0, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": 0.1303216319, "flow_signal": "relative_strength", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "segment": "growth_beta", "proxy_ticker": "QQQ", "proxy_name": "Nasdaq 100 ETF", "timestamp": "2026-06-12T21:30:00+08:00", "return_1d": 0.005884694, "return_20d": 0.0021534738, "return_60d": 0.2125399181, "drawdown_60d": -0.0332635724, "volume_ratio": 1.2625942595, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": 0.0, "flow_signal": "neutral", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "segment": "semiconductor", "proxy_ticker": "SMH", "proxy_name": "Semiconductor ETF", "timestamp": "2026-06-12T21:30:00+08:00", "return_1d": 0.0172450727, "return_20d": 0.0719645765, "return_60d": 0.5748215531, "drawdown_60d": -0.0281235331, "volume_ratio": 0.8684190129, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": 0.0698111028, "flow_signal": "relative_strength", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "segment": "semiconductor", "proxy_ticker": "SOXX", "proxy_name": "iShares Semiconductor ETF", "timestamp": "2026-06-12T21:30:00+08:00", "return_1d": 0.0158792487, "return_20d": 0.1249362622, "return_60d": 0.7625409706, "drawdown_60d": -0.0315585904, "volume_ratio": 1.0242755006, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": 0.1227827884, "flow_signal": "relative_strength", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "segment": "credit", "proxy_ticker": "HYG", "proxy_name": "High-yield credit ETF", "timestamp": "2026-06-12T21:30:00+08:00", "return_1d": 0.0, "return_20d": 0.001127163, "return_60d": 0.006801019, "drawdown_60d": -0.0088034603, "volume_ratio": 0.9236925684, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": -0.0010263107, "flow_signal": "neutral", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "segment": "duration", "proxy_ticker": "TLT", "proxy_name": "Long-duration Treasury ETF", "timestamp": "2026-06-12T21:30:00+08:00", "return_1d": -0.0024425065, "return_20d": 0.0100094029, "return_60d": -0.0136844808, "drawdown_60d": -0.0196594041, "volume_ratio": 0.9181163439, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": 0.0078559291, "flow_signal": "neutral", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "segment": "us_rates", "proxy_ticker": "^TNX", "proxy_name": "US 10Y Treasury yield", "timestamp": "2026-06-12T20:20:00+08:00", "return_1d": 0.0053775866, "return_20d": 0.0058282948, "return_60d": 0.0535337341, "drawdown_60d": -0.0385686384, "volume_ratio": 0.0, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": 0.003674821, "flow_signal": "neutral", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "segment": "oil", "proxy_ticker": "CL=F", "proxy_name": "WTI crude oil", "timestamp": "2026-06-15T12:00:00+08:00", "return_1d": -0.0557256819, "return_20d": -0.2397078076, "return_60d": -0.1663199289, "drawdown_60d": -0.290393947, "volume_ratio": 0.2346258507, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": -0.2418612814, "flow_signal": "deleveraging", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "segment": "copper", "proxy_ticker": "HG=F", "proxy_name": "Copper futures", "timestamp": "2026-06-15T12:00:00+08:00", "return_1d": 0.0105745804, "return_20d": 0.0395104752, "return_60d": 0.196116283, "drawdown_60d": -0.0227084781, "volume_ratio": 14.2045009785, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": 0.0373570014, "flow_signal": "relative_strength", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "segment": "gold", "proxy_ticker": "GC=F", "proxy_name": "Gold futures", "timestamp": "2026-06-15T12:00:00+08:00", "return_1d": 0.0343534531, "return_20d": -0.0430220836, "return_60d": -0.0523616798, "drawdown_60d": -0.1024786485, "volume_ratio": 49.2640499554, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": -0.0451755573, "flow_signal": "neutral", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "segment": "usd", "proxy_ticker": "DX-Y.NYB", "proxy_name": "US Dollar Index", "timestamp": "2026-06-15T12:00:00+08:00", "return_1d": -0.0021553518, "return_20d": 0.0026695581, "return_60d": 0.0030736702, "drawdown_60d": -0.0097005119, "volume_ratio": 0.0, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": 0.0005160843, "flow_signal": "neutral", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "segment": "fx_yen", "proxy_ticker": "JPY=X", "proxy_name": "USD/JPY", "timestamp": "2026-06-15T17:39:45+08:00", "return_1d": -6.87041e-05, "return_20d": 0.0080268012, "return_60d": 0.0055579198, "drawdown_60d": -0.0025415632, "volume_ratio": 0.0, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": 0.0058733274, "flow_signal": "neutral", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "segment": "fx_cnh", "proxy_ticker": "CNH=X", "proxy_name": "USD/CNH", "timestamp": "2026-06-15T17:39:44+08:00", "return_1d": 0.0, "return_20d": 0.0, "return_60d": 0.0, "drawdown_60d": 0.0, "volume_ratio": 0.0, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": -0.0021534738, "flow_signal": "neutral", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "segment": "oil_gold_ratio", "proxy_ticker": "CL=F/GC=F", "proxy_name": "Oil / gold ratio", "timestamp": "2026-06-15T17:39:45+08:00", "return_1d": -0.0870874286, "return_20d": -0.2055279943, "return_60d": 0.0, "drawdown_60d": -0.2312959339, "volume_ratio": 0.0, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": -0.207681468, "flow_signal": "deleveraging", "source": "Derived from Yahoo Finance chart proxies" }, { "segment": "copper_gold_ratio", "proxy_ticker": "HG=F/GC=F", "proxy_name": "Copper / gold ratio", "timestamp": "2026-06-15T17:39:45+08:00", "return_1d": -0.0229890919, "return_20d": 0.0862429526, "return_60d": 0.0, "drawdown_60d": -0.0259151545, "volume_ratio": 0.0, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": 0.0840894789, "flow_signal": "relative_strength", "source": "Derived from Yahoo Finance chart proxies" }, { "segment": "hardware_infra", "proxy_ticker": null, "proxy_name": "equal-weight basket", "timestamp": "2026-06-15T17:39:45+08:00", "return_1d": 0.0352754846, "return_20d": -0.0097654895, "return_60d": 0.4424614992, "drawdown_60d": null, "volume_ratio": 1.0540097518, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": -0.0119189632, "flow_signal": "neutral", "source": "AI basket price-volume monitor" }, { "segment": "software_model_app", "proxy_ticker": null, "proxy_name": "equal-weight basket", "timestamp": "2026-06-15T17:39:45+08:00", "return_1d": 0.0137729085, "return_20d": -0.1149695492, "return_60d": -0.0992589232, "drawdown_60d": null, "volume_ratio": 1.1575308558, "relative_return_20d_vs_qqq": -0.117123023, "flow_signal": "deleveraging", "source": "AI basket price-volume monitor" } ], "macro_regime": [ { "indicator": "Nasdaq volatility", "proxy_ticker": "^VXN", "proxy_name": "Nasdaq volatility", "segment": "volatility", "timestamp": "2026-06-12T21:30:00+08:00", "latest_value": 27.2700004578, "unit": "index", "return_1d": -0.1041392911, "return_20d": 0.1324751057, "return_60d": -0.0162337254, "drawdown_60d": -0.1869409746, "trend_points": "[21.92,23.04,22.46,23.58,23.15,23.76,24.74,24.13,24.59,24.08,25.33,24.21,24.09,23.71,22.74,22.82,23.9,23.39,22.92,22.58,23.18,23.27,23.84,23.22,30.47,27.12,29.78,32.68,30.44,27.27]", "level_state": "elevated", "benchmark": "Nasdaq volatility: <20 calm; 20-25 watch; 25-30 elevated; 30-35 high stress; >=35 panic.", "decision_use": "Macro context for risk budget, timing and supply-chain cost pressure; not standalone security selection.", "required_corroboration": "Confirm with primary orders, pricing, margins, customer demand, valuation and liquidity.", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "indicator": "US 10Y Treasury yield", "proxy_ticker": "^TNX", "proxy_name": "US 10Y Treasury yield", "segment": "us_rates", "timestamp": "2026-06-12T20:20:00+08:00", "latest_value": 4.4869999886, "unit": "%", "return_1d": 0.0053775866, "return_20d": 0.0058282948, "return_60d": 0.0535337341, "drawdown_60d": -0.0385686384, "trend_points": "[4.378,4.446,4.416,4.356,4.392,4.364,4.41,4.463,4.481,4.461,4.595,4.623,4.667,4.572,4.586,4.558,4.493,4.481,4.455,4.453,4.475,4.455,4.491,4.477,4.536,4.552,4.528,4.542,4.463,4.487]", "level_state": "valuation_pressure", "benchmark": "US 10Y yield: <3.5% supportive; 3.5-4.25% neutral; 4.25-4.75% valuation pressure; >=4.75% high-rate pressure.", "decision_use": "Duration and capex-financing pressure proxy for AI infrastructure and long-duration growth assets.", "required_corroboration": "Confirm with primary orders, pricing, margins, customer demand, valuation and liquidity.", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "indicator": "Long-duration Treasury ETF", "proxy_ticker": "TLT", "proxy_name": "Long-duration Treasury ETF", "segment": "duration", "timestamp": "2026-06-12T21:30:00+08:00", "latest_value": 85.7699966431, "unit": "USD", "return_1d": -0.0024425065, "return_20d": 0.0100094029, "return_60d": -0.0136844808, "drawdown_60d": -0.0196594041, "trend_points": "[85.61,84.96,85.43,86.08,85.65,86.08,85.56,84.99,84.8,84.92,83.66,83.56,83.02,83.91,84.22,84.68,85.1,85.3,85.74,85.76,85.47,85.65,85.31,85.5,85.06,84.62,85.12,84.88,85.98,85.77]", "level_state": "neutral", "benchmark": "TLT 20D: >+5% duration relief; -5% to +5% neutral; <-5% rate-pressure selloff.", "decision_use": "Macro context for risk budget, timing and supply-chain cost pressure; not standalone security selection.", "required_corroboration": "Confirm with primary orders, pricing, margins, customer demand, valuation and liquidity.", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "indicator": "High-yield credit ETF", "proxy_ticker": "HYG", "proxy_name": "High-yield credit ETF", "segment": "credit", "timestamp": "2026-06-12T21:30:00+08:00", "latest_value": 79.9400024414, "unit": "USD", "return_1d": 0.0, "return_20d": 0.001127163, "return_60d": 0.006801019, "drawdown_60d": -0.0088034603, "trend_points": "[80.06,79.8,79.92,80.16,79.86,80.14,79.98,79.87,79.91,79.85,79.46,79.54,79.35,79.86,79.9,79.91,80.18,80.13,80.23,80.31,79.84,79.9,79.68,79.83,79.43,79.54,79.62,79.47,79.94,79.94]", "level_state": "neutral", "benchmark": "HYG 20D: >+1% credit supportive; -1.5% to +1% neutral; -3% to -1.5% watch; <-3% credit stress.", "decision_use": "Macro context for risk budget, timing and supply-chain cost pressure; not standalone security selection.", "required_corroboration": "Confirm with primary orders, pricing, margins, customer demand, valuation and liquidity.", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "indicator": "WTI crude oil", "proxy_ticker": "CL=F", "proxy_name": "WTI crude oil", "segment": "oil", "timestamp": "2026-06-15T12:00:00+08:00", "latest_value": 80.1500015259, "unit": "USD/bbl", "return_1d": -0.0557256819, "return_20d": -0.2397078076, "return_60d": -0.1663199289, "drawdown_60d": -0.290393947, "trend_points": "[106.42,102.27,95.08,94.81,95.42,98.07,102.18,101.02,101.17,105.42,108.66,107.77,98.26,96.35,96.6,93.89,88.68,88.9,87.36,92.16,93.76,96.02,93.04,90.54,91.3,88.2,90.03,87.71,84.88,80.15]", "level_state": "demand_or_inflation_relief", "benchmark": "WTI: <$65 demand/inflation relief; $65-90 neutral band; >$90 energy-cost/geopolitical pressure. 20D +/-8% marks fast move.", "decision_use": "Energy input, inflation and geopolitical stress proxy for data-center power/cooling cost assumptions.", "required_corroboration": "Confirm with primary orders, pricing, margins, customer demand, valuation and liquidity.", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "indicator": "Copper futures", "proxy_ticker": "HG=F", "proxy_name": "Copper futures", "segment": "copper", "timestamp": "2026-06-15T12:00:00+08:00", "latest_value": 6.4984998703, "unit": "USD/lb", "return_1d": 0.0105745804, "return_20d": 0.0395104752, "return_60d": 0.196116283, "drawdown_60d": -0.0227084781, "trend_points": "[5.795,5.943,6.1365,6.1275,6.249,6.4135,6.485,6.6355,6.5675,6.2515,6.272,6.165,6.2905,6.257,6.342,6.361,6.305,6.396,6.3595,6.524,6.6495,6.481,6.511,6.2635,6.3295,6.3025,6.249,6.259,6.4305,6.4985]", "level_state": "neutral", "benchmark": "Copper 20D: >+8% industrial demand/cost pressure; -8% to +8% neutral; <-8% industrial demand warning.", "decision_use": "Grid, cable, transformer and industrial demand proxy; validate against order books and margins.", "required_corroboration": "Confirm with primary orders, pricing, margins, customer demand, valuation and liquidity.", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "indicator": "Gold futures", "proxy_ticker": "GC=F", "proxy_name": "Gold futures", "segment": "gold", "timestamp": "2026-06-15T12:00:00+08:00", "latest_value": 4359.7998046875, "unit": "USD/oz", "return_1d": 0.0343534531, "return_20d": -0.0430220836, "return_60d": -0.0523616798, "drawdown_60d": -0.1024786485, "trend_points": "[4519.5,4555.7998,4681.8999,4699.7998,4720.3999,4718.7002,4677.6001,4697.7002,4678.1001,4555.7998,4552.5,4506.2998,4531.2998,4539.7998,4521.0,4500.3999,4447.5,4499.2998,4560.5,4475.2002,4489.1001,4436.7002,4475.7998,4337.1001,4335.8999,4260.0,4108.2002,4090.3,4215.0,4359.7998]", "level_state": "neutral", "benchmark": "Gold 20D: >+5% defensive/real-rate hedge demand; -5% to +5% neutral; <-5% risk-on or real-rate pressure.", "decision_use": "Macro context for risk budget, timing and supply-chain cost pressure; not standalone security selection.", "required_corroboration": "Confirm with primary orders, pricing, margins, customer demand, valuation and liquidity.", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "indicator": "Oil / gold ratio", "proxy_ticker": "CL=F/GC=F", "proxy_name": "Oil / gold ratio", "segment": "oil_gold_ratio", "timestamp": "2026-06-15T17:39:45+08:00", "latest_value": 0.0183838717, "unit": "ratio", "return_1d": -0.0870874286, "return_20d": -0.2055279943, "return_60d": 0.0, "drawdown_60d": -0.2312959339, "trend_points": "[0.023547,0.022448,0.020308,0.020173,0.020214,0.020783,0.021845,0.021504,0.021626,0.02314,0.023868,0.023915,0.021685,0.021223,0.021367,0.020863,0.019939,0.019759,0.019156,0.020593,0.020886,0.021642,0.020787,0.020876,0.021057,0.020704,0.021915,0.021443,0.020138,0.018384]", "level_state": "risk_off_or_growth_scare", "benchmark": "Oil/gold ratio: rising 20D >+5% implies oil/inflation pressure; falling <-5% implies defensive/risk-off tilt.", "decision_use": "Macro context for risk budget, timing and supply-chain cost pressure; not standalone security selection.", "required_corroboration": "Confirm with primary orders, pricing, margins, customer demand, valuation and liquidity.", "source": "Derived from Yahoo Finance chart proxies" }, { "indicator": "Copper / gold ratio", "proxy_ticker": "HG=F/GC=F", "proxy_name": "Copper / gold ratio", "segment": "copper_gold_ratio", "timestamp": "2026-06-15T17:39:45+08:00", "latest_value": 0.0014905501, "unit": "ratio", "return_1d": -0.0229890919, "return_20d": 0.0862429526, "return_60d": 0.0, "drawdown_60d": -0.0259151545, "trend_points": "[0.001282,0.001304,0.001311,0.001304,0.001324,0.001359,0.001386,0.001412,0.001404,0.001372,0.001378,0.001368,0.001388,0.001378,0.001403,0.001413,0.001418,0.001422,0.001394,0.001458,0.001481,0.001461,0.001455,0.001444,0.00146,0.001479,0.001521,0.00153,0.001526,0.001491]", "level_state": "pro_growth_confirmation", "benchmark": "Copper/gold ratio: rising 20D >+5% confirms cyclical/pro-growth risk appetite; falling <-5% flags industrial weakness or risk-off.", "decision_use": "Macro context for risk budget, timing and supply-chain cost pressure; not standalone security selection.", "required_corroboration": "Confirm with primary orders, pricing, margins, customer demand, valuation and liquidity.", "source": "Derived from Yahoo Finance chart proxies" }, { "indicator": "US Dollar Index", "proxy_ticker": "DX-Y.NYB", "proxy_name": "US Dollar Index", "segment": "usd", "timestamp": "2026-06-15T12:00:00+08:00", "latest_value": 99.5350036621, "unit": "index", "return_1d": -0.0021553518, "return_20d": 0.0026695581, "return_60d": 0.0030736702, "drawdown_60d": -0.0097005119, "trend_points": "[98.47,98.48,98.02,98.25,97.84,97.94,98.29,98.48,98.88,99.27,98.97,99.3,99.11,99.19,99.32,99.17,99.21,99.02,98.91,99.2,99.22,99.53,99.41,100.07,100.05,99.91,99.95,99.86,99.75,99.535]", "level_state": "easier_dollar", "benchmark": "DXY: <100 easier dollar; 100-105 neutral; >105 strong-dollar pressure. 20D +3% marks fast dollar squeeze.", "decision_use": "FX and global liquidity proxy, especially for Asian suppliers and EM demand.", "required_corroboration": "Confirm with primary orders, pricing, margins, customer demand, valuation and liquidity.", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "indicator": "USD/JPY", "proxy_ticker": "JPY=X", "proxy_name": "USD/JPY", "segment": "fx_yen", "timestamp": "2026-06-15T17:39:45+08:00", "latest_value": 160.1190032959, "unit": "JPY", "return_1d": -6.87041e-05, "return_20d": 0.0080268012, "return_60d": 0.0055579198, "drawdown_60d": -0.0025415632, "trend_points": "[157.194,157.677,156.508,156.829,156.858,157.231,157.671,157.851,158.382,158.844,158.861,159.035,158.888,159.018,158.946,158.954,159.243,159.568,159.27,159.353,159.636,159.968,159.94,159.99,160.327,160.174,160.384,160.527,160.13,160.119]", "level_state": "yen_weakness_pressure", "benchmark": "USD/JPY: <140 yen strength; 140-155 neutral/watch; >155 yen-weakness and Japan input-cost pressure.", "decision_use": "Macro context for risk budget, timing and supply-chain cost pressure; not standalone security selection.", "required_corroboration": "Confirm with primary orders, pricing, margins, customer demand, valuation and liquidity.", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, { "indicator": "USD/CNH", "proxy_ticker": "CNH=X", "proxy_name": "USD/CNH", "segment": "fx_cnh", "timestamp": "2026-06-15T17:39:44+08:00", "latest_value": 6.7582998276, "unit": "CNH", "return_1d": 0.0, "return_20d": 0.0, "return_60d": 0.0, "drawdown_60d": 0.0, "trend_points": "[6.7583]", "level_state": "easier_rmb", "benchmark": "USD/CNH: <7.00 easier RMB; 7.00-7.20 neutral; 7.20-7.30 watch; >7.30 China FX pressure.", "decision_use": "Macro context for risk budget, timing and supply-chain cost pressure; not standalone security selection.", "required_corroboration": "Confirm with primary orders, pricing, margins, customer demand, valuation and liquidity.", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" } ], "research_policy": [], "source_quality": [ { "source": "Market price and volume snapshots", "status": "loaded", "cost_tier": "free_public", "freshness": "delayed_or_market_dependent", "decision_use": "price_volume_proxy", "limitation": "Price and volume indicate market behavior, not fundamental proof or true net fund flow.", "required_corroboration": "Check filings, earnings calls, orders, valuation and liquidity." }, { "source": "Market regime and sector-flow proxies", "status": "loaded", "cost_tier": "free_public", "freshness": "delayed_or_market_dependent", "decision_use": "market_regime_and_dip_buy_timing_proxy", "limitation": "This is not exchange-confirmed net fund flow and not standalone buy advice.", "required_corroboration": "Confirm primary evidence, valuation, liquidity, earnings revisions and position crowding." }, { "source": "Company filings, IR and earnings calls", "status": "required_for_validation", "cost_tier": "free_public", "freshness": "issuer_reported", "decision_use": "primary_evidence", "limitation": "Primary disclosures can lag real-time supply-demand changes and may omit customer-specific detail.", "required_corroboration": "Cross-check orders, lead times, ASP, capacity, margins and channel data." } ], "validation_lanes": [ { "label": "信号留痕", "label_en": "Signal ledger", "value": "每日记录", "value_en": "Daily record", "detail": "每次日报固定记录信号标题、数据日、篮子表现、量能和下一证据，避免事后解释。", "detail_en": "Every brief records the signal title, data date, basket behavior, volume and next evidence to avoid post-hoc narratives." }, { "label": "结果窗口", "label_en": "Outcome windows", "value": "7 / 20 / 60D", "value_en": "7 / 20 / 60D", "detail": "按发出信号后的固定窗口复盘，不用单日涨跌替代有效性判断。", "detail_en": "Review fixed windows after each signal rather than judging validity by a single trading day." }, { "label": "覆盖范围", "label_en": "Coverage", "value": "52 names", "value_en": "52 names", "detail": "公开市场篮子与 79 个二阶瓶颈候选池持续更新。", "detail_en": "Public-market baskets and 79 second-order bottleneck candidates are updated continuously." }, { "label": "读者反馈", "label_en": "Reader feedback", "value": "打开 / 回复 / 转发", "value_en": "Open / reply / forward", "detail": "把读者提出的问题、补充证据和反证纳入下一期简报，持续提高覆盖质量。", "detail_en": "Reader questions, added evidence and counterpoints feed into later briefs to improve coverage quality." } ], "referral_rewards": [ { "level": "邀请 3 位确认订阅", "level_en": "3 confirmed referrals", "title": "解锁一篇深度报告", "title_en": "Unlock one deep-dive report", "detail": "邀请确认订阅后，可阅读一篇完整专题研究，包含来源、图表和反证清单。", "detail_en": "Confirmed referrals unlock one full thematic research note with sources, charts and counter-evidence." }, { "level": "邀请 5 位确认订阅", "level_en": "5 confirmed referrals", "title": "提前看专题研究池", "title_en": "Preview thematic research pools", "detail": "开放某个链条的扩展研究池、反证清单和待验证公司列表。", "detail_en": "Open the extended research pool, counter-evidence checklist and companies to verify for a selected chain." }, { "level": "邀请 10 位确认订阅", "level_en": "10 confirmed referrals", "title": "Founder research circle", "title_en": "Founder research circle", "detail": "进入小范围研究讨论，优先提交问题、线索和反证，不提供个性化交易指令。", "detail_en": "Join a small research discussion group to submit questions, leads and counter-evidence. No personalized trading instructions." } ], "updates": [ { "layer": "Market Data", "name": "行情与轮动", "name_en": "Market and rotation", "cadence": "工作日盘中", "cadence_en": "Intraday on trading days", "output": "涨跌、成交量冲击、上涨广度、跨市场数据新鲜度", "output_en": "Returns, volume shocks, market breadth and cross-market data freshness" }, { "layer": "Industry Evidence", "name": "产业链证据", "name_en": "Supply-chain evidence", "cadence": "每周多次", "cadence_en": "Multiple times per week", "output": "公司公告、业绩会、订单、产能、第三方产业数据", "output_en": "Company filings, earnings calls, orders, capacity and third-party industry data" }, { "layer": "Community", "name": "舆论扩散", "name_en": "Narrative diffusion", "cadence": "工作日收盘后", "cadence_en": "After market close on trading days", "output": "社区热度、叙事扩散、早期/主流/拥挤/过热状态", "output_en": "Community heat, narrative diffusion and early/mainstream/crowded/overheated states" }, { "layer": "Institutional", "name": "机构与 NVIDIA 动向", "name_en": "Institutions and NVIDIA activity", "cadence": "每周", "cadence_en": "Weekly", "output": "13F/ETF 变化、NVIDIA 投资/合作、Physical AI 生态信号", "output_en": "13F/ETF changes, NVIDIA investments and partnerships, Physical AI ecosystem signals" }, { "layer": "Derivatives", "name": "期权异动与预测市场", "name_en": "Options flow and prediction markets", "cadence": "工作日盘中 / 每日", "cadence_en": "Intraday on trading days / daily", "output": "异常期权成交、成交量/OI、隐波、Polymarket 概率变化和事件热度", "output_en": "Unusual options flow, volume/OI, IV, Polymarket probability changes and event heat" }, { "layer": "Publishing", "name": "研究报告与告警", "name_en": "Research publishing and alerts", "cadence": "日报 / 周报 / 触发式", "cadence_en": "Daily / weekly / trigger-based", "output": "Web dashboard、邮件摘要、IM 推送、Webhook 告警", "output_en": "Web dashboard, email digest, IM push and webhook alerts" } ] }